1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	319264	Heroes of Normandie: Big Red One Edition	Current	33	9.12	5.54	3.33
			Estimated	200	7.65	5.72	2.51

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
The time is summer 1944. The Sun shines on Normandy hedgerows. Gentle wind, fields of bright flowers, and in the background, the romantic staccato of machine gun fire in the morning. In these typical French countryside landscapes, thousands of men are about to fight. And die. Bravely like heroes, or cowardly like wussies. But only heroes really matter. Those you see in Hollywood Golden Age war movies. Here lies the inspiration for Heroes of Normandie; here is what the game has to offer: explosive and fast-paced battles; the pleasure of butchering your enemies through MG42 walls of lead; and the ability to crush Nazi bastards under tons of shells – basically, blood and guts. A miniatures game without miniatures, Heroes of Normandie is a fast-paced WW2 strategy war game inspired by Hollywood war movies. A tactical scale board-game opposing two players and two armies, with the Germans on one side and the Americans on the other. Players use order tokens to determine initiative and to bluff. While a single six-sided die determines combat, action cards are played to spice things up. Secretly plan your attacks and outwit your opponent. Block the opposing strategy and surprise the enemies. Deploy your units and don't turn back! What's new in the Big Red One edition: 50-Card decks (instead of 70) with new Alternate Bonuses, for even faster gameplay and reduced setup time. New and improved rule book New scenarios New and improved Aircraft system All new artwork for the Heroes New Blast Templates New Heroes New Bonus Markers And last, but not least, Flamethrowers in the core box (instead of in expansions)! -description from publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/319264

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Heroes of Normandie: Big Red One Edition? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Heroes of Normandie: Big Red One Edition. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Heroes of Normandie: Big Red One Edition. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	319264	Heroes of Normandie: Big Red One Edition	1.00	5.54	9.12	2.51	33
1	2014	162384	Imperial Stars II	0.94	5.60	7.18	2.50	116
2	1997	9916	Arnhem 1944	0.91	5.54	6.62	2.88	79
3	1978	8109	The Battle of Lobositz	0.91	5.54	6.56	2.14	77
4	2011	88870	Taiwan Strait Crisis 1950	0.89	5.53	7.58	3.33	30
5	1973	5959	Scrimmage: Tactical Professional Football	0.86	5.43	4.07	3.07	82
6	1974	3574	Tank! Armored Combat in the 20th Century	0.86	5.47	5.17	2.77	97
7	2006	24321	Panzer Grenadier: Airborne – Introductory Edition	0.85	5.57	6.37	2.74	168
8	1975	239	Wagram: The Peace of Vienna, 5-6 July 1809	0.85	5.56	6.74	2.13	103
9	1971	1709	Trireme	0.85	5.60	6.42	2.60	233
10	1983	27863	Lützen	0.85	5.50	5.50	2.60	35
11	1984	8452	Unconditional Surrender	0.85	5.49	5.35	2.88	36
12	1982	3037	Escape from Altassar	0.84	5.50	5.66	2.33	33
13	2018	231920	Holdfast: Tunisia 1942-43	0.84	5.58	8.28	2.67	60
14	2018	265039	A Song of Ice & Fire: Tabletop Miniatures Game – Night's Watch Starter Set	0.83	5.58	8.39	2.00	61
15	2011	41429	Band of Brothers: Screaming Eagles	0.83	6.07	7.74	2.77	636
16	2005	18460	Lock 'n Load: Band of Heroes	0.83	5.95	7.40	3.06	625
17	2015	198670	Kings of War (Second Edition)	0.83	5.55	8.18	2.50	49
18	1986	6431	Air & Armor	0.82	5.66	7.74	3.62	153
19	2010	65313	Napoleon's War: The 100 Days	0.82	5.66	7.15	2.33	198
20	2015	173374	Neuschwabenland	0.81	5.54	7.64	3.00	41
21	2002	7089	Afrika Korps: The Desert War – Platoon Level Combat in World War II: A Panzer Grenadier Game	0.81	5.58	6.36	2.62	177
22	1975	8744	Okinawa: The Last Battle, April 1945	0.81	5.51	6.46	2.50	31
23	2001	7169	Heroes of the Soviet Union: The Defense of Mother Russia 1942-43	0.81	5.53	6.33	2.84	83
24	2004	14762	Yankees & Rebels	0.81	5.53	7.61	2.12	31
25	2011	91737	The Picrocholine Wars	0.80	5.52	6.93	2.12	31

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Heroes of Normandie: Big Red One Edition while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	319264	Heroes of Normandie: Big Red One Edition	5.54	1.00	5.54	9.12	2.51	33
1	2006	25417	BattleLore	5.34	0.76	7.00	7.36	2.77	9,183
2	2014	162384	Imperial Stars II	5.28	0.94	5.60	7.18	2.50	116
3	2010	62222	Commands & Colors: Napoleonics	5.22	0.75	7.00	8.01	2.74	2,857
4	1997	9916	Arnhem 1944	5.05	0.91	5.54	6.62	2.88	79
5	2011	41429	Band of Brothers: Screaming Eagles	5.04	0.83	6.07	7.74	2.77	636
6	1978	8109	The Battle of Lobositz	5.04	0.91	5.54	6.56	2.14	77
7	2005	18460	Lock 'n Load: Band of Heroes	4.93	0.83	5.95	7.40	3.06	625
8	2011	88870	Taiwan Strait Crisis 1950	4.93	0.89	5.53	7.58	3.33	30
9	1971	1709	Trireme	4.76	0.85	5.60	6.42	2.60	233
10	2006	24321	Panzer Grenadier: Airborne – Introductory Edition	4.76	0.85	5.57	6.37	2.74	168
11	2012	96749	Fading Glory	4.75	0.80	5.97	7.50	2.59	558
12	1975	239	Wagram: The Peace of Vienna, 5-6 July 1809	4.75	0.85	5.56	6.74	2.13	103
13	1974	3574	Tank! Armored Combat in the 20th Century	4.69	0.86	5.47	5.17	2.77	97
14	2018	231920	Holdfast: Tunisia 1942-43	4.68	0.84	5.58	8.28	2.67	60
15	1986	6431	Air & Armor	4.67	0.82	5.66	7.74	3.62	153
16	1983	27863	Lützen	4.66	0.85	5.50	5.50	2.60	35
17	2018	265039	A Song of Ice & Fire: Tabletop Miniatures Game – Night's Watch Starter Set	4.65	0.83	5.58	8.39	2.00	61
18	1984	8452	Unconditional Surrender	4.65	0.85	5.49	5.35	2.88	36
19	1973	5959	Scrimmage: Tactical Professional Football	4.65	0.86	5.43	4.07	3.07	82
20	1982	3037	Escape from Altassar	4.64	0.84	5.50	5.66	2.33	33
21	2010	65313	Napoleon's War: The 100 Days	4.63	0.82	5.66	7.15	2.33	198
22	2015	198670	Kings of War (Second Edition)	4.59	0.83	5.55	8.18	2.50	49
23	2019	285905	Marvel: Crisis Protocol	4.53	0.74	6.14	8.41	3.00	636
24	2002	7089	Afrika Korps: The Desert War – Platoon Level Combat in World War II: A Panzer Grenadier Game	4.53	0.81	5.58	6.36	2.62	177
25	2015	173374	Neuschwabenland	4.51	0.81	5.54	7.64	3.00	41

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

## Warning in abbreviate(neighbor_name, 60): abbreviate used with non-ASCII chars

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	319264	Heroes of Normandie: Big Red One Edition	Devil Pig Games	Yann and Clem	Olivier Derouetteau	Wargame	Players: Two Players Only Wargames	Dice Rolling
					Max Simoneau	World War II	Series: Heroes System Tactical Scale World War 2	Grid Movement
					Pixel Vengeur			Variable Player Powers
					Yann and Clem

Individual Game Analysis